Coronavirus Pandemic Update
In our last newsletter a few weeks ago we assessed the coronavirus threat: “Our bottom-line conclusions thus far: this will become a worldwide pandemic, with the virus directly killing perhaps a few million, but likely a less than 1% chance that the average American will be killed.” While the data is still uncertain, it looks like our earlier assessment is still the best guess for how this pandemic will play out.
Using the latest data, Harvard’s School of Public Health says there is a “less than 5% chance” this coronavirus, Covid-19, will be contained like SARS was. They estimate that 40% to 70% of the world’s population is likely to catch this virus over the year**. The Center for Disease Control has been calmly warning that it will continue spreading in the U.S. and we will be living with it well into 2021 until a vaccine can be developed. These sources are not doing the math to compute the likely casualties, but we will here:
- If 50% of the world’s population catches the virus
- 8 billion people world population
- If the lethality rate is 1% (best guess so far—some estimates higher)
- Fatalities are: 39 million worldwide from the virus, 1.5 million in the U.S.
- Deaths from a collapse, if looting for food or medicine or vaccines results: potentially more than direct deaths from virus if a breakdown in the economy and food distribution, loss of law and order
If better data shows that the lethality rate is much less than 1%, which is quite possible, then this may end up being not a very deadly virus—though still it would likely kill millions worldwide.
If a vaccine can be developed, it will take time to produce and distribute the vaccine, so we’ll be living with Coronavirus deaths for at least another year. The government will decide the priority of who gets the vaccine. Some people won’t like being low on the priority list, and may try to steal vaccine. If the virus (which is constantly evolving) mutates to a more virulent form we are in far worse trouble. First responders will suffer higher exposure and casualty rates. We are lucky that this is happening with a relatively mild type of virus. Sooner or later Avian Flu (which a high lethality rate more like Ebola than Corona virus) will naturally evolve to be human to human transmissible, or a terrorist or nation state or lunatic will manipulate the virus to achieve this. With high lethality rates, the deaths and panic and loss of law and order will be orders of magnitude worse.
None of this should be any surprise; experts have been saying for over a decade that we are highly vulnerable to natural pandemics and bio attacks. An article I wrote on the “Age of Bioengineered Pandemics” and Collapse that was published in The American Interest two years ago, warning that a bad pandemic is “inevitable” and likely to lead to a shut down in the economy, loss of law and order, and widespread marauding by both bad people (gang members, criminals) and eventually normal people who fear dying of starvation.
Now it looks like Covid-19 probably won’t generate a disastrous pandemic and collapse, but it is “inevitable” that a more deadly virus will naturally or deliberately via bio attack plague us. If its Avian Flu based, it may yield a pandemic directly killing a billion or more, and a collapse that may kill even more. This is what we’ve been warning about and preparing for since Fortitude Ranch was founded. Hopefully control measures will continue to improve, Covid-19 won’t kill millions, and will instead serve as a “wake up call” to spur the kind of preparedness government should have been focused on a decade ago.
A huge benefit of FR is lots of smart members with diverse experience and skills we’ll need. One of our members, Sheryl, is a registered nurse who has had training in pandemics and gets regular communication from the health department. She has pointed out that in the U.S. we are only testing for people with known exposure or travel from China at this point. With so much flu and related respiratory diseases, Covid-19 could easily be spreading faster in the U.S. than we know. Another problem she noted is that we have huge dependence on China for pharmaceutical manufacturing, including antibiotics, chemo, heart meds, a huge proportion of a drugs. If the virus spreads in China, we are likely to suffer shortages of medicines as well as many other supplies.
Fortitude Ranch staff is preparing as if a Collapse may eventually occur, but at this time we doubt that this virus will yield a severe deadly pandemic or a Collapse. Of course, if a collapse does look likely we will directly advise members and token holders.
**Jo Craven McGinty, “How Far Can a Person Spread Coronavirus?”, Wall Street Journal, Feb 16, 2020, p. A2
Fortitude Ranch Colorado is sold out—if you want to join FR WV, do it now
We have no more rooms available at FR Colorado, but will be opening a large new “Viking Lodge” building this spring. You can do a “Pioneer Membership” now for FR Colorado, joining with a reserved space in the new building to lock in the price, with the clock on your membership time not starting until your room is available to occupy. You can also buy Fortitude tokens to have priority to join when wait lists form. Email [email protected] for more information on these options for FR CO.
We do have room left at FR West Virginia, but with the surge in prepping interest due to the Coronavirus, if you want to join, do it now. Contact [email protected]
At Fortitude Ranch West Virginia you have the opportunity to enjoy the beautiful scenery of the George Washington National Forest in all its splendor. You can hunt, fish, hike, or just relax by a cozy fire.
In addition to “Spartan” and “Economy” accommodations, FR WV still has some luxury rooms and memberships available, and first-class amenities.
FR has many membership options that are somewhat complicated, and you can buy cryptocurrency utility tokens that let you join later and give you priority to join over cash buyers. Since token and cash membership prices keep going up they are a great way to lock in the price if you plan to join, or could be a good investment since you can sell your membership tokens to others desperate to join FR. If you’d like to talk with a FR sales associate to understand these options, here is a map showing you who to contact based on where you live:
Fortitude Token Price will be raised again soon, so if you want to secure priority to join Fortitude Ranch and lock in prices, buy now
With the growing demand to join FR, we are going to raise our Fortitude Token price again (went up in January) on March 1.
National Public Radio features great story on Fortitude Ranch—as an affordable survival community
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/10/803011944/preparing-for-the-end-of-the-world-on-a-budget
Forbes.com also has run a nice story on Fortitude Ranch as a refuge if the pandemic gets bad
50 caliber rifles at Fortitude Ranch
FR WV Ranch Manager David Jones aims 50 caliber rifle
We have this heavy duty weapon in case some marauders in an armored vehicle or excavator ever come after us in a collapse situation. Members are welcome to fire it at our firing range—but the bullets are expensive, about $5 each!
Please forward this Newsletter to Friends and Family you’d like to survive a pandemic
Fortitude Ranch is the only combination recreational and survival facility in the world, offering fantastic survival protection at a very low cost: about $1,000 per person annually. We are a large survival community that can keep members spread out (virus protection) with sufficient size to deter/defeat marauder attacks and raise crops and livestock. We are fully equipped to survive any disaster, managed by professional staff, not dependent on votes by members. Fortitude Ranch is affordable because of large numbers of members and economies of scale. We are especially attractive to join because we locate in beautiful areas and serve as a recreation and vacation facility as well as a survival community.
If you’d prefer a PDF copy of this newsletter to send to friends, email [email protected] and we’ll send it to you.
Staff Profile: Alicia Cachuela
Alicia Cachuela brings 25+ years of media sales and business development experience. For entrepreneurial DNA, she’s worked at 4 startups, of which 3 were acquired, all disrupters within their industries. She recently lived in Boise, Idaho, where she led print & digital sales for an adventure magazine, topics that fit her interest in hiking, cycling and exploring national parks. Alicia has consulted for other survivalist community properties, and follows prepper trends closely. Last fall she attended a survival training conference, which covered archery, foraging, rifle shooting, and compass navigation/declination. She’s a graduate of Westmont College in Santa Barbara, CA, with a Bachelors degree in Communication and Media Studies.
We are very fortunate to have enthusiastic, dedicated staff at Fortitude Ranch—folks you’d like to be with if a long-lasting collapse occurs.
Fortitude Ranch accepting investments from “Accredited Investors”
To continue expanding Fortitude Ranch to more locations, we’re selling equity in Fortitude Ranch to raise funds. We wish that anyone who wants to invest could, but the federal government believes they are smarter than you and that you lack the responsibility to make your own decisions—so they dictate that unless you are higher income, it is illegal for companies to offer equity for sale in the “Regulation D” offering we’re doing. The Feds consider you an “accredited investor” if you have an annual income exceeding $200,000 ($300,000 for joint income) for the last two years or a net worth exceeding $1 million. The “accredited” word is absolute bravo sierra—it has nothing to do with your experience or investment skills, it’s strictly based on income, bureaucratic nonsense. If you do qualify as an accredited investor and want to consider investing, please email Drew at [email protected] and he will send you the equity offering memorandum.